《AJAE》｜季节性农业活动和犯罪

摘要：对劳动力需求的突然冲击有时会增加当地的犯罪率。在此基础上，我们估计了劳动密集型季节性农业活动对犯罪的因果效应。我们分析了一个独特的描述了1990年至2016年美国各县每月的犯罪活动和水果、蔬菜和园艺(FVH)的行业就业情况的数据集。我们发现，水果、蔬菜和园艺产业劳动力占比与财产和暴力犯罪率的下降有关，可能还与县内财产犯罪的数量有关。基于种族的异质性研究发现，劳动密集型的水果、蔬菜和园艺产业活动降低了非西班牙裔被捕和受害的比例，增加了西班牙裔被捕和受害的数量(当地西班牙裔人口不断增长)。综上所述，研究结果与以下观点基本一致：劳动密集型作物的农业收成增加了当地劳动力市场机会，减少了犯罪动机。研究结果对于解决与测量季节性农业劳动力相关的固有挑战的一系列替代性规范是可靠的。

Abstract：Sudden shocks to labor demand have sometimes been shown to increase local crime rates. We build on this literature by estimating the causal effect of labor-intensive seasonal agricultural activity on crime. We analyze a unique data set that describes criminal activity and fruit, vegetable, and horticultural (FVH) employment by month and U.S. county from 1990 to 2016. We find that the FVH labor share is associated with reduced property and violent crime rates, and possibly the number of property crimes committed within county years. Examining heterogeneities based on ethnicity, labor-intensive FVH activity decreases the rate of non-Hispanic arrests and victimization, and increases the number of Hispanic arrests and victims (consistent with rising local Hispanic populations). Taken together, results are broadly consistent with the idea that agricultural harvest of labor-intensive crops enhances local labor market opportunities that reduce incentives to commit crimes. Results are robust to a battery of alternative specifications that address the inherent challenges associated with measuring seasonal agricultural labor.

期刊介绍：《美国农业经济学杂志》旨在为世界各地的农业和食品经济学、自然资源和环境、以及农村和社区发展等领域的创造性学术工作讨论提供平台。IF 3.028

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